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Global Warming - Why Should I Care?
Robert Utter, Fri Dec 9th

I attended the June 2005 ASHRAE (American Society of Heating,Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers) meeting andtechnical conference in Denver, CO. One of the things I alwayslike to do at these technical conferences is attend the sessiondevoted to an update of the current issues impacting ourindustry. This time there was a session devoted explicitly toglobal climate change. I got to the huge ballroom early so Icould get a good seat for the presentations and as the firstspeaker took the stand, frankly I was shocked to look around andcount less than 50 people in attendance. Clearly our industry isnot taking the issue of global very seriously.Now, if you are my age, you remember the scientific warnings inthe 60's about the coming ice age. So I'll admit I have beensomewhat slow to warm to the idea of global climate change(formerly called global warming, pun intended). But, as timegoes by better data and more research support the prediction ofincreasing global temperatures. This global temperature increaseas the result of greenhouse warming has a potentiallydevastating impact on global climate. Therefore, we should alltake the issue very seriously and at a minimum monitor veryclosely the private and public policies of the US and countriesaround the world. I forecast that as the science becomesclearer in "the next few years", this issue will have amajor impact on each of us personally and on each of ourbusinesses and the products we design and manufacture.

The difficulty is defining "the next few years". What isthe timeframe we should be concerned about? There is onetimeframe already defined by the Kyoto protocol. And thattimeframe is now - we are already behind. Of course, the US hasnot signed up to adhere to the Kyoto agreement, so that doesn'treally concern us. Or does it? These decisions are too oftenpolitically motivated more than scientifically motivated. We allknow that our commitment to the Kyoto agreement could changewith the next presidential election. That is in November 2008 -a little over three years away. President Bush has been veryconsistent in his position and policy relative to climatechange. But, even though many people seem unaware, we do have anofficial US policy regarding climate change. Basically it callsfor an 18% reduction in the rate of increase of greenhouse gasemissions. See the links at the end of the article for moreinformation on US policy. The policy also calls for areevaluation of our progress relative to our reduction goal in2012. Given the interest I see in our industry and otherindustries, I think it highly likely that we will come nowherenear that 18% reduction in the rate of growth, let aloneactually reduce emission levels like most of the rest of theworld is calling for. That being the case, it is notunreasonable to expect a new and much tougher policy onemissions on or before 2012, only seven years from now. So Ithink that reasonably defines "the next few years". If youaren't going to retire before 2012, then you can expect agreat deal of pressure on you, your products and your businessto reduce emissions in the next three to seven years. Giventhe life cycle of most products, three to seven years goes by ina hurry.

At the very least be an informed business leader andinformed citizen. Make up your own mind about the validity ofthe data and the likelihood, timeframe and severity of impact onyour business. Hopefully the next time you have the opportunityto hear some of the world's foremost experts speak on globalclimate change, like I had in Denver, the room won't be empty.

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